Casual Inference Criteria

It seems likely that there could be a combination of common risk factors (Figure 1) that would explain some of the association between periodontal disease and CVD as well as some causal pathways. To assess the possible existence of a causal component, the major prospective studies are reviewed in the context of the criteria for causality proposed by Hill.5 Some of these criteria have been challenged or have evolved over time; however, the basic criteria, still considered a standard approach for assessing causality, are defined individually and applied to the pertinent literature.5,6 These criteria include strength of association, dose-response relationship, time sequence, consistency, specificity, and biologic plausibility. Coherence and plausibility have been combined into the criterion of biologic plausibility because the differences between the two are very subtle.6 Also, the criterion of experiment was not assessed since there is no direct evidence to date from clinical trials and it is not possible to randomly allocate people to periodontal disease. Lastly, the criterion of analogy was excluded because, as Rothman argues, "scientists can find analogies everywhere," and "the absence of such analogies only reflects lack of imagination or lack of evidence."7

Some epidemiologists have proposed alternative criteria for causality. Rothman defines a causal mechanism as a set of factors that are jointly sufficient to induce a binary outcome event, and that are minimally sufficient (ie, under the omission of just one factor the outcome would change).8 This definition highlights the potential complexity of causality but provides less structure for evaluating the effect of one condition on another outcome. For this article as in the earlier review,9 the relationship between periodontal disease and CVD in the context of Hill's criteria will be evaluated, recognizing the inherent limitation in any set of criteria used to assess causality.


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